З світу: Зростання витрат на сонячну енергію та зберігання в США до 50% через мита

A recent report by Wood Mackenzie examines two possible tariff scenarios and concludes that the costs of developing solar energy on a utility scale and battery energy storage systems will rise sharply.

Given the high level of uncertainty surrounding the final level of tariffs on solar and energy storage components imported into the United States, energy and energy storage costs are certain to rise, according to a recent report by Wood Mackenzie entitled ‘All aboard the tariff coaster: implications for the US power industry’.

The United States is already one of the most expensive markets for large-scale solar energy, and according to the analytical company, costs will rise even further with the planned tariffs. However, Wood Mac said that energy storage will be hit hardest.

According to the report, a further slowdown in project activity is expected.

‘In an industry with five- to ten-year planning cycles, not knowing how much a project will cost next year or the year after is a disruptive factor and causes tremendous uncertainty for participants in the US energy industry,’ said Chris Seiple, vice president of energy and renewables at Wood Mackenzie. ‘As a result, we can expect potential delays in project development and an increase in the price of power purchase agreements (PPAs). We will certainly see an impact on investment projects in the energy sector. The severity will depend on which scenarios play out.’

Wood Mackenzie used its Power & Renewables Supply Chain Cost Hub tariff calculator to estimate the impact of tariffs on the costs of investment projects in the energy sector. The impact of tariffs is assessed based on various input data, including project and equipment cost breakdowns, as well as US import data.

The analysis considered two scenarios:

• The trade tension scenario assumes that by the end of 2026, the effective tariff rate will stabilise at 10%, with tariffs on China at 34%.
• The trade war scenario assumes that the United States will continue its aggressive tariff policy and introduce reciprocal tariffs, leading to an overall effective tariff rate of 30% by 2030.

Based on these scenarios, Wood Mackenzie estimates that most types of technology will see cost increases of 6% to 11%, with the exception of utility-scale energy storage.

Energy storage
Tariffs on imports from China are expected to significantly affect energy storage costs.

The Wood Mackenzie report notes that the United States is heavily dependent on battery cells to supply the rapidly growing market for utility-scale energy storage battery systems. This dependence, combined with potentially high tariffs, could increase the cost of these projects by 12% to more than 50%, according to Wood Mac's estimates.

‘Although battery cell manufacturing capacity is expanding in the US, the pace of growth is nowhere near enough to cover even a fraction of battery projects in the US,’ Seiple said. ‘We estimate that domestic manufacturing capacity will only be sufficient to meet about 6% of demand in 2025 and could cover up to 40% of demand by 2030.’

In a trade tension scenario, Wood Mac estimates that the cost of a solar power plant in the US will be 54% higher than in Europe and 85% higher than a new solar power plant built in China. The analytics firm notes that solar energy in the US is already among the most expensive in the world.

‘Tariffs imposed on solar modules, coupled with inefficient energy transmission policies that increase interconnection costs, have made solar power plant construction costs higher in the US than in most other markets,’ Seiple said. ‘Increasing tariffs will only exacerbate this premium that American energy consumers must pay for access to renewable energy.’

Seiple said that current trade policies pose significant challenges for the US energy industry, with participants likely to face higher costs and potential supply chain disruptions, although the full impact remains unclear.